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Rystad Energy Newsletter

October 2018 UPDATE


"Iranian crude exports dropped materially for a second month in a row in September 2018"
Rystad Energy observes that the Iranian crude exports dropped materially for the second month in a row in Sep-18. At 1.7 million bpd for Sep-18, Iranian crude exports are 450,000 bpd below pre-sanctions (average between May 2017 and February 2018) levels of 2.15 million bpd. Rystad Energy sees increased likelihood of a larger cut in Iranian exports than our 900,000 bpd loss estimate as we await news about the US decision on sanction waivers for Japan, India, and others.
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"Ensco and Rowan - A merger of equals"
Two of the leading offshore drilling contractors have agreed to merge creating an industry-leading drilling contractor capable of working across all water depths with a truly global footprint.
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"New research shows that oil markets could be stabilized"
Rystad Energy has over the last year developed a model to give a more realistic simulation of the cyclical behavior of the oil price. The model has correctly predicted the oil price increase seen over the last months. Now it shows that the oil price will be highly volatile going forward, but also that a swing producer can stabilize the market if the right heuristics are applied. The model is based on system dynamics, which is a mathematical approach to model the nonlinear behavior of complex systems based on feedback loops and time delays.
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"Global floater rates slowly starting to swing upwards"
Global day rates for floating rigs remained flat during 2017, but have slowly started to swing upwards this year, averaging about $160,000 per day.
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"Regasification and LNG imports for main importing regions" 

Rystad Energy observes that currently planned regasification capacity expansions in Asia will allow LNG demand to grow towards 2030. Total planned capacity additions is forecasted to reach 700 Mtpa by 2030 driven by expansions in China and India. Asia LNG demand of 392 Mt in 2030 would imply an average utilization rate of 56% if all regasification projects were sanctioned. The seasonality in East Asian demand will require China to continue its capacity development, while more stable demand in the South and South East Asia can allow the regasification plants to run at a higher utilization rate.
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"WorleyParsons doubles revenues as Jacobsthrows in cards on oil and gas" 

WorleyParsons announced on Monday, 22nd October 2018, its acquisition of the energy, chemicals and resources (ECR) segment of Jacobs, a Texas-based professional service company, for $3.3 billion. The acquisition will cause WorleyParsons to double in size and bring in additional revenues of about $1.3 billion dollars (as of Q3 2018 reporting). For comparison, WorleyParsons had average quarterly revenue of about $1.2 billion. The ECR business delivers front-end studies, engineering, procurement, maintenance and construction services across oil and gas upstream (20%), refining (25%), chemical markets (35%), mining & minerals (20%).
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"Crude oil production from mature fields in Venezuela" 

In the absence of substantial project sanctioning since 2014, we believe most of the rigs in Venezuela are used for infill drilling to arrest declines of mature fields. Since spring 2016, rig count in the country started to fall as main drilling contractors, Schlumberger and Halliburton, curtailed activity due to deferred payments by the state operator PDVSA. Rig count reduction continued during the second half of 2017 and into 2018. The rig count is currently at 26 rigs, compared to an estimated 60-70 rigs required to normalize declines of mature fields to 6-7% per year. As a result, we forecast some mature fields, such as El Furrial, Tia Juana and Bachaquero, to lose around half of their production in 2018. Overall, we forecast crude production from mature fields to decline 35% y/y in 2018 and 25% y/y in 2019.
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"U.S. oil set to beat EIA's forecast: 11.15 million bpd is low case for August" 

On the eve of publication of the EIA-914 and EIA PSM reports tomorrow (October 31), providing US monthly oil production data for August 2018, Rystad Energy analysis indicates that the market should expect significant outperformance of US oil production compared to the EIA’s predictions.
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"VREAS wrap up: More capacity, more solar" 

In early September the Victorian government announced the successful projects in the Victorian Renewable Energy Auction Scheme (VREAS). The scheme is designed to meet the state’s renewable energy target, the first phase of which targeted 650 MW of new generation capacity. With the effective achievement of the federal Renewable Energy Target (RET) and considerable uncertainty over the future of Australian energy policy, the VREAS has been a major driver of near-term project development.
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"NCS E&P Update October 2018" 

Key NCS Takeaways October 2018.
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"FPSO market alive and making strides again" 

The global floating production market has stirred back to life after enduring a couple years in virtual hibernation during the downturn. Last year brought some relief to the market, with six new FPSO orders worldwide, and with oil prices recovering to around $80 per barrel this year, combined with technological advancements and reduced costs, momentum has picked up further.
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"Shale gas production in Pennsylvania surpasses 17 billion cfpd" 

Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (PA DEP) published preliminary oil and gas well production data for August 2018 earlier this week. This data has been processed and made available to our ShaleWellCube users.
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"Considerable investments needed to maintain Nigeria's production levels" 

Following oil production disruptions still periodically affecting the country’s output, Nigerian oil and condensate production showed recovery last year and is estimated to remain at the level of 2 million bbl/d in 2018. While Nigeria is not expected to ramp up production further in the future, sanctioned and unsanctioned projects waiting to be put on stream would be able to offset declining volumes from brownfields, keeping oil supply stable. This article assesses the outlook for Nigeria, illustrated by three key drivers: production, breakeven prices for new projects, and total spending.
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